Consumers around the globe are exhibiting signs of economic stress according to the Global Economic Confidence survey undertaken by IRIS, the global network of independently owned market research firms. The IRIS network interviewed 12,436 people in twenty-three countries and found that more than half of global citizens agree that current economic conditions are the worst they have seen in their lifetime.

As each new day yields fresh headlines about protectionist trade policies and volatility in economic markets, it is hard to imagine that consumers feel particularly confident these days. Yet, while North American and Northern European consumers are generally feeling optimistic about their purchasing power, those in South America and Southern Europe are not feeling as confident about being able to buy the things they want and need. This global divide is one reflection of worldwide financial anxiety.

While the context, conditions , and contributors eroding global economic confidence vary from region to region, consumers around the globe say that their household is having a more difficult time making ends meet, they are concerned about job security, and believe governments are not doing enough to address these economic challenges.

This financial anxiety is taking hold of everyday decisions for many consumers. With nearly half of households around the world having trouble making ends meet, trade-offs between essential and discretionary spending will become more and more commonplace.

While the decision to dine out less frequently or make clothes last a little longer may signal headwinds for certain consumer sectors, the decision to hold off seeing a doctor or to give less to charity could have a lasting impact on general social welfare.

In the longer term, lingering concerns around job security could have significant impact on corporate profits. Nearly half (43%) of households around the world are concerned that someone in their household may lose their job in the next six months. Anxious employees may be less likely to take risks that fuel innovation, while distracted ones may be less productive.

These concerns are leading to widespread reductions in spending on discretionary items such as clothing, restaurants and charitable giving, as well as cuts to spending on essentials such as food, shelter and, in some cases, needed medicine.

Based on reports of the inverted yield curve and other trends, many armchair economists are predicting recession. Most feel that the economy of their country is currently in a recession, or will be in the coming months; and more than half view current economic conditions as the worst in their lifetime. Consumers are more likely to see the economy of their country getting weaker rather than getting stronger.

This anxiety may be driving us toward a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the public is concerned about the prospect of a recession, the tightening of consumer spending or lulls in corporate investment may well produce one.

Many feel that their country’s economy is getting weaker; and many believe their country is either already experiencing a recession, or will be in the coming months.

While most believe that the current economic conditions in their country are the worst they have experienced in their lifetime, a sense of optimism remains. The vast majority of those surveyed believe that, in the next six months, their personal financial situation will be the same, if not better than it is today.

In an analysis of over 11,936 verbatim comments submitted to our survey, respondents indicated that they feel that governments and global institutions have let them down, and that politicians have mismanaged natural resources and the economy. This feeling speaks to a general lack of trust in the ability or intention of national governments and international bodies to fairly divide the wealth of the world.

This malaise is global, but is expressed in a variety of ways. In Latin America, corruption gets a strong mention. For some European countries, the banking system, along with capitalism, are the top concerns; while others are worried about the impact that larger powers (e.g., the United States of America, Russia and the European Union) and big corporations have on the world economy. Globally, many are worried that greed is stretching global resources too thin.

Donald Trump is the person most often mentioned as the problem. This feeling is especially strong in the United States of America, but is shared across all regions. In some cases, other local leaders are more prominent (e.g., Shinzō Abe in Japan, Emmanuel Macron in France), but there is a general sense that these names represent leadership.

When being more specific, people extend their blame to governments and politicians, bringing up issues between various countries. The trade war between the United States of America and China is a global concern that is felt strongly in Chile and Peru. Brexit is a key concern in the United Kingdom and, to a lesser extent, Ireland, where trade with the United Kingdom could become more difficult.

Other problems are harder to pin directly on specific governments or politicians. Lack of jobs, lack of good jobs , and fear of unemployment are global concerns, felt most acutely in India and France. Globalization and migration are concerns in France, Austria , and Italy; while terrorism is mentioned in Turkey.

There is a high degree of economic uncertainty among the surveyed publics, which is contributing to household-level worries and reports of decreased consumer spending.

A substantial majority does not believe their government is doing enough to address their country’s economic challenges. Creating more jobs, and reducing poverty and homelessness, are top priorities for most countries. While somewhat fewer prioritize environmental protection, many recognize that environmental protection can boost economic growth and provide jobs.

• Government action on job creation and/or poverty reduction can be expected to be popular among publics in many of the participating countries.
• Governments and industry may wish to collaborate on efforts to boost economic confidence, in order to avoid the potential of a self-fulfilling prophecy of a consumer-led recession.
• Charities might consider the potential of connecting their fundraising appeals to widespread economic concerns – charitable giving to help those need it in these difficult times.

In June 2019, twenty-three IRIS members conducted an economic confidence survey. The study covered public opinion about personal, national and global economic conditions, their causes and consequences. and orientations toward government intervention. An assessment of national governments' performance was also undertaken.

The 2019 IRIS Global Economic Confidence Study asked a series of questions designed to assess general economic confidence of 12,436 consumers from twenty-three countries around the world. Online interviews were conducted from May 24 to June 17, 2019. The questionnaire was translated into seven different languages.

To ensure that data were representative of each country’s composition, weights were applied. The survey data were weighted within each country by both age and gender. Weights were calculated using the most recent information and statistics available from The World Factbook (an Internet-based data publication launched by the CIA, Central Intelligence Agency).

Developed in partnership with Environics Research.